@InProceedings{HamadaVoFeAlSoVi:2015:SiEfMu,
author = "Hamada, Emilia and Volpato, Margarete Marin Lordelo and Ferreira,
Giovane de Lima and Alves, Helena Maria Ramos and Souza, Vanessa
Cristina Oliveira de and Vieira, Tatiana Grossi Chquiloff",
affiliation = "{} and {} and {} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos efeitos das mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas sobre a ferrugem do caf{\'e} na regi{\~a}o
Sudeste do Brasil",
booktitle = "Anais...",
year = "2015",
editor = "Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz
Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de",
pages = "2629--2636",
organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Brasileiro de Sensoriamento Remoto, 17. (SBSR)",
publisher = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
abstract = "Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of coffee in the
world. The rust (Hemileia vastratrix) is the most important
disease of coffee crop in Brazil, with important damage effects on
its production. The climate can directly and indirectly affect the
interaction between the coffee plant and the fungus. Accordingly,
the climate change can alter the spatial distribution and
favorability of the disease, resulting in new distribution
pattern. The present study aimed to simulate future scenarios of
coffee rust epidemics by mapping the geographical distribution and
adopting a logic mathematical criteria that estimates climate
favorability of pathogen incidence and data projected by global
climate models from IPCC AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report). The study
considered the months (April, May, and June) of period of
1961-1990 and future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and
2071-2100, B1 and A2 scenarios of IPCC. According to the results
obtained, for current climate (1961-1990) the percentage of
unfavorable areas to the occurrence of the disease ranges from
approximately 40% in April, 20% in May, and 10% in June. For
future scenarios, the occurrence ratio changes to approximately
20% in the months from April to June, with the exception of the A2
scenario to 2071-2100 period, which provides approximately 10% of
unfavorable area. Thus, there is a tendency in the future to
increase the favorability of incidence of the rust on coffee in
Southeast region of Brazil. On average, the maps obtained in
scenarios B1 and A2 had a similar tendency.",
conference-location = "Jo{\~a}o Pessoa",
conference-year = "25-29 abr. 2015",
isbn = "978-85-17-0076-8",
label = "524",
language = "pt",
organisation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3JM4A89",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3JM4A89",
targetfile = "p0524.pdf",
type = "Mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}